Friday, September 23, 2011

How do you know when a stock will start the next day upwards or downwards?

I want to know if a stock is going to perform well in the early hours when the stock market opens. I notice that stocks don't start the day with the same price the end the day before.|||You have no idea where the stock is going to open the next day. It could react to almost an infinte number of news items that happened either the night before or the morning of. This could include but not limited to earnings, geo-political unrest, oil prices, interest rates, upgrades, downgrades, economic numbers etc etc etc. For NYSE listed stocks the, specialist opens the stock based on the imbalance. For example if he/she has 25000 to buy at the market and 10000 to sell at the market (both the buyers and sellers want the opening price) in XYZ stock that would be an imbalance of 15000 to buy. So the specialist will indicate to all the wall street trading desks a range with which the stock will open. If the stock closed yesterday at $30 they might go out $30.00-30.50. At a price of say $30.40, the specialist might pick up more sell interest so he might now have 5000 to buy and paired on 20000 at the newer, higher price. The specialist could sell 5000 shares out of his/her own account and XYZ will open up 40 cents at $30.40 on 25000 shares. Hope that wasn't too confusing.|||Check with Cramer on CNBC.


The man is a genius and very rich|||If you can figure this out, you will run the world some day.|||You can't, only insiders ever really know.


Buy mutual funds or guaranteed interest products.|||you can look at the futures market on cnbc or msnbc ,bloomberg any of these T.V. channels have the futures index and the market trades in extended hours 2 hours after the market officially closes and 2 hours before it opens in limit order block trades . you can check these on the internet on yahoo finance, e trade, ameritade , Scottrade , fidelity etc.|||Watch after market business news that could effect the market.


The terrorist attack on NYC and London subway caused the stock market to nosedived at the open. Currently the Korean missiles crises and the event in Middle East are causing market uncertainty.





Watch after market earning reports from bellweather company like Intel, IBM, and mircosoft. Bad earning from bellweather can cause a dop in stock prices of other companies in the same industry.|||While there is no perfect predictor of the opening price, I think you are puzzled over the fact that people trade stocks when the market is closed. The opening price is close to the price paid for a stock in the "extended hours" marketplace.





The "extended hours" market starts at 8 AM Eastern and the normal market takes over at 9:30 AM Eastern. Then the "extended hours" or "after hours" market takes over at the market close at 4 PM Eastern and continues until 8 PM Eastern.





Example: Finisar or FNSR closes at $4.50 at 4 PM. But then they put out a conference call and news report at 4:05 PM that is a lousy earnings report. Within minutes the after hours crowd has sold off the stock until it is trading at $3.70. The next day it opens at $3.60 and rapidly declines to $3.25.





The after hours traders are much fewer in number and tend to be quick draw artists who don't always know what they doing. So they do get the market value wrong from time to time, but mostly they are roughly correct.|||Yahoo Finance has the after hours trading price. Not sure how often it's updated, or how it close it is to opening price. Check in the morning just before opening.

No comments:

Post a Comment